Thursday, August 30, 2007

Running Cold (again)

It's been a brutal few days of cards. The GSOP never got off the ground, Kings busted then Queens and I am out the door. The cash game on Tuesday was simply horrible with the fish hitting their 6% shots to win monster pots and nothing, just nothing going right. And then tonight more of the same.

The tournament was pretty horrible. I got crippled when my Queens got outdrawn by KQ. Then short stacked I get AQs on the button and run into AK in the big blind. He has slightly less than me so I am still alive but only just. I end up having to be all in blind in the big blind rather than UTG after the blind gets moved to another table. That turns out OK as the button puts me in with AJ and I turn my blind hand over to reveal AQ. A double up and I can pass some more. However I then get AK on the button and go over the top of a mid position raiser who holds Tens. They hold and I am out.

The cash game is slow and hot and I am about break even with £80 in front of me when I get Q9 of diamonds in the small blind. I call the 3 more to see the flop along with 5 others and get a fantastic 9s Td Kd on the flop. I decide to bet out and see where I am and also to build a pot because I am a big favourite here.

I bet £7 the maniac raises to £25 and then Trevor mutters, shakes his head and calls the £25. I have seen enough and jam it for £80 total knowing that I am only in bad shape against AJ of diamonds. They both think a long time before calling, the maniac is now all in too with a little side pot going on.

I am up against AcAs for Trevor and KcAh for the maniac. Happy days! Lets stop to consider my position here. I can win with any 2 nines, 4 jacks, 3 queens and the remaining 8 diamonds (don't count the Jack of diamonds twice). Thats 17 outs twice! Of course I can't actually win with drawing hands unlike the rest of the donkeys in the room and the board comes 3s 3h and the Aces stand up. Horrible.

Poker stove tells me: I am the 60% favourite.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.835% 32.34% 00.50% 292 4.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 07.032% 06.53% 00.50% 59 4.50 { AhKc }
Hand 2: 60.133% 60.13% 00.00% 543 0.00 { Qd9d }